Recession will hit United States Soon in June.

Business leaders are coming to the same conclusion that the US economy is getting worse.

According to a report that was released on Monday by the business think tank, despite the fact that the United States of America is not officially in a recession (at least not yet), the Leading Economic Index was down for the tenth consecutive month in December, falling by one percent to 110.5. According to Refinitiv, economists were anticipating a decrease of 0.7 percent.

According to the Conference Board, the index reaches its peak approximately one year prior to a recession. The Conference Board noted that the index appears to have reached its peak in February 2022.

Ataman Ozyildirim, the senior director of economics at the Conference Board, stated in a statement, “There was widespread weakness among leading indicators in December, indicating deteriorating conditions for labor markets, manufacturing, housing construction, and financial markets in the months ahead.”

According to the report, seven of the ten components of the index decreased in December, and the LEI’s trajectory continues to indicate a recession.

Ozyildirim stated, “Overall economic activity is likely to turn negative in the subsequent quarters before picking up again in the final quarter of 2023.”

A group of economists from the National Bureau of Economic Research is the official arbiter of a recession. Before making a decision, which may be made after a recession has already begun, they consider a variety of economic indicators.

However, the most recent business conditions survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics, which was released on Monday morning, found that approximately 52 percent of economists polled believed the United States would enter a recession this year.

According to the report, Julie Coronado, president of NABE, “For the first time since 2020, more respondents expect falling rather than increased employment at their firms in the next three months.” In comparison to recent years, fewer respondents anticipate that their companies’ capital expenditures will rise simultaneously.

As the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates in an effort to reduce inflation, US economic activity has begun to slow in recent months.

Inflation is improving, according to Fed officials, but tight monetary policy and future rate hikes will continue.

The Fed’s rate-setting committee’s next two-day meeting begins on January 31. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that a quarter-point increase in interest rates is anticipated.

The Fed will have additional economic data to examine prior to that meeting: The Personal Consumption Expenditures report, which includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and fourth-quarter GDP data will be released on Thursday and Friday.

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